The “1 in 3” Divorce Statistic — What Research Actually Shows

The “1 in 3” figure (approximately 33%) aligns with current divorce data in some countries, but global research shows that divorce rates vary widely across regions and socioeconomic contexts.

United States Research Findings

According to the National Center for Health Statistics (2022), approximately 32.6% of U.S. marriages have ended in divorce — a figure closely matching the “1 in 3” estimate. This represents a substantial decline from the peak rates observed in the late 20th century.

Longitudinal research shows that 40–50% of first marriages in the U.S. ultimately end in divorce, with more precise estimates placing the rate at 41%. Divorce rates have dropped from around 50% in 1980, when they reached their highest point at 22.6 divorces per 1,000 married women.

Global Research Comparisons

Sub-Saharan Africa

A large-scale study of 33 sub-Saharan African nations found that approximately 25% of first marriages ended in divorce, with rates varying dramatically from 6.9% to 47.1% depending on the country.

Ethiopia

Research published in Scientific Reports found that 45% of first marriages ended in divorce within 30 years. Specifically, 28% ended within the first 5 years, 34% within 10 years, and 40% within 20 years. A separate study in Dejne Administrative Town reported a divorce prevalence of 21.14%.

Europe

Cross-sectional, population-based studies indicate that European divorce rates vary widely, with many nations averaging around 40% of marriages ending in divorce.

China

China’s divorce rate remains much lower, at approximately 1.4 divorces per 1,000 people — roughly half the rate of the United States.

Methodological Considerations

Scientific divorce statistics depend heavily on the type of measurement used:

• Crude Divorce Rate: Number of divorces per 1,000 population (e.g., 2.4 in the U.S. in 2022).
• Cohort Analysis: Tracks specific groups of married couples over time to estimate eventual divorce percentages.
• Cross-Sectional Studies: Compare divorce rates across different countries and time periods.

Marriage Order and Divorce Probability

Data consistently show that the risk of divorce increases with each subsequent marriage:

• First marriages: 40–50% end in divorce
• Second marriages: 60–67% end in divorce
• Third marriages: 70–73% end in divorce

Global Trends from Sociological Research

A global analysis published on ResearchGate shows that industrialised nations—especially the United States—have the highest divorce frequencies, with roughly one in two marriages ending in divorce. European countries average around 40%, while developing regions report substantially lower rates.

Longitudinal Research Findings

Decades-long studies in England and Wales demonstrate how divorce rates have evolved over time. In 1963, only 19% of couples divorced before their 20th anniversary; by the mid-1990s, this figure rose to 38%. Divorce rates then began a gradual decline in the early 2000s, stabilising at lower levels in recent years.

Conclusion from Scientific Evidence

The “1 in 3” divorce statistic is approximately accurate for the current United States (32.6% in 2022) but oversimplifies the global picture. Scientific research shows that divorce rates range from about 20% to over 50%, depending on country, culture, education level, and socioeconomic conditions. While divorce is common worldwide, its prevalence—and trajectory—varies markedly between regions and over time.