The "1 in 3" statistic (approximately 33%) is close to current research findings for some countries, but global divorce rates vary significantly according to scientific studies.
United States Research Findings
Recent scientific data from the National Center for Health Statistics shows that approximately 32.6% of U.S. marriages ended in divorce as of 2022, which closely aligns with the "1 in 3" statistic. However, this represents a significant decline from previous decades.
Longitudinal research indicates that 40-50% of all first marriages in the United States will end in divorce, with researchers estimating that 41% of all first marriages end in divorce. This represents a decrease from approximately 50% in 1980 when the divorce rate peaked at 22.6 divorces per 1,000 married women.
Global Research Comparisons
Sub-Saharan Africa: A scientific study of thirty-three sub-Saharan African countries found that 25% of first marriages ended in divorce, with rates ranging from 6.9% to 47.1% depending on the country.
Ethiopia: Research published in Scientific Reports found that 45% of all first marriages ended in divorce within 30 years, with 28% ending within the first 5 years, 34% within 10 years, and 40% within 20 years. Another study in Dejne administrative town found a divorce prevalence of 21.14%.
Europe: Cross-sectional population-based studies in Europe show significant variation, with some countries experiencing around 40% of marriages ending in divorce.
China: Research indicates much lower rates, with approximately 1.4 divorces per 1,000 people, roughly half the rate of the United States.
Methodological Considerations
Scientific studies use different measurement approaches:
Crude Divorce Rate: Number of divorces per 1,000 population (which was 2.4 in the U.S. in 2022).
Cohort Analysis: Following specific groups of married couples over time to determine what percentage eventually divorce.
Cross-sectional Studies: Comparing divorce rates across different countries and time periods.
Research on Marriage Order
Scientific studies consistently show increasing divorce rates with subsequent marriages:
- First marriages: 40-50% divorce rate
- Second marriages: 60-67% divorce rate
- Third marriages: 70-73% divorce rate
Global Trends from Research
A sociological analysis published in ResearchGate examining worldwide trends found that industrial countries, particularly the USA, have the highest divorce frequencies, with "one of every two marriages leading to divorce." European countries average around 40% of marriages ending in divorce.
Longitudinal Research Findings
Studies tracking marriages over decades, such as research from England and Wales, show that divorce rates increased significantly from the 1960s through the 1990s, then began declining. For example, in 1963, only 19% of couples divorced before their twentieth anniversary, but by the mid-1990s this had increased to 38%.
Conclusion from Scientific Evidence
The "1 in 3" statistic is approximately accurate for the current United States (32.6% in 2022) but represents a global average that obscures significant variation. Scientific research shows divorce rates ranging from approximately 20% in some countries to over 50% in others, with many developed nations falling in the 30-50% range. The evidence indicates that while divorce is common globally, rates vary significantly by country, culture, education level, and socioeconomic factors.
